Nigeria Inflation Falls to 14.63% in September 2026

Nigeria's headline inflation rate fell to 14.63% in September 2026, down from 15.39% in August and 20.98% in September 2025, according to the Consumer Price Index report the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on 15 October. It is the fourth monthly decline in a row and a bigger drop than forecasts had suggested. Food inflation, however, stayed high at 19.59%. Here is what the report says, where the surprise came from and what it means for your savings and investments.

The key numbers

All figures below come from the NBS September 2026 report and its data tables (base period 2024 = 100).

The overall price index rose only slightly, from 146.30 in August to 146.38 in September. The 12-month average inflation rate was 15.80%.

The trend in 2026

On the official NBS series, headline inflation was 15.93% in May, 15.91% in June, 15.43% in July and 15.39% in August before falling to 14.63% in September. The September fall of 0.76 percentage points is the largest monthly drop in that run.

It also beat forecasts. Before the release, a BusinessDay model estimate put September at about 15.5% and FMDA at about 15.65%, both expecting a small rise. Our 14 October preview reported those forecasts. The official number came in almost a full point lower.

Why it fell: food prices dipped in the month

The main driver was food. Prices for food fell 1.55% between August and September, after rising 1.02% the month before. The NBS linked the monthly change to items such as guinea corn flour, maize flour, local rice, eggs, onions, palm oil, green beans, Irish potatoes, okra, tomatoes and plantain. Rural prices fell 0.89% in the month, which fits a harvest effect.

Even so, food inflation on a yearly basis barely moved, at 19.59% against 19.57% in August. So food is still about one-fifth dearer than a year ago. That is why many households will not feel much relief. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 5.85 percentage points of the 14.63% headline rate, the largest share of any group.

The warning sign: core and urban prices

Two parts of the report point the other way.

• Core inflation picked up in the month. Core prices, which leave out farm produce and energy, rose 1.11% from August, after a small fall of 0.06% the month before. On a yearly basis core still eased, to 12.95%.
• Urban prices rose faster. Month-on-month urban inflation rose to 0.53% from 0.28%, while rural prices fell.

In plain words, cheaper food in the month did most of the work. Underlying prices in cities did not cool in the same way. If food prices rise again after the harvest, the headline rate could stop falling.

State picture

The NBS warns that state figures should not be compared directly, because each state's basket differs. Still, the spread is wide. Year-on-year headline inflation was highest in Imo (30.04%), Enugu (22.38%) and Niger (22.05%), and lowest in Taraba (1.78%), Bauchi (2.84%) and Adamawa (3.66%). Food inflation was highest in Lagos at 34.40%.

What this means for investors

• Real returns improve. With inflation at 14.63%, a one-year Treasury bill at a 15.90% stop rate (about 18.90% true yield, by our calculation from the 14 October auction) now pays more than inflation. Check your fixed deposit or savings rate against 14.63% after charges.
• Rate cut hopes may grow. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cut its policy rate by 350 basis points to 23% in September. Lower inflation gives it more room, but the rise in core prices is a reason for caution. Do not assume further cuts are certain.
• Bonds and stocks react to rate views. Lower inflation can support bond prices and bank and consumer stocks if investors expect lower rates. On 15 October the NGX All-Share Index closed at 247,707.13, up 59.18% so far this year, according to AIICO Capital.
• The naira matters too. The naira traded at ₦1,331.61 per dollar at the official market on 15 October, AIICO Capital reported. A stable currency helps keep imported prices in check.
• Watch October food prices. The next report will show whether the September drop was a harvest blip or a lasting trend.

This is for information only and is not investment advice.

FAQ

What is Nigeria's inflation rate for September 2026?

The NBS put headline inflation at 14.63% year on year in September 2026, down from 15.39% in August. Month-on-month inflation was 0.06%.

What is Nigeria's food inflation rate now?

Food inflation was 19.59% year on year in September 2026, almost unchanged from 19.57% in August, although food prices fell 1.55% during the month.

Does lower inflation mean prices are falling?

No. It means prices are rising more slowly. Prices are still 14.63% higher on average than a year ago.

Sources

• National Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index September 2026 report and data tables (released 15 Oct 2026)
• Nairametrics, "Nigeria's inflation slows to 14.63% in September, fourth straight monthly decline in 2026" (15 Oct 2026)
• Punch, "Nigeria's inflation dropped to 14.63% in September, says NBS" (15 Oct 2026)
• Reuters via CNBC Africa, "Nigeria's inflation rate eases slightly but still a worry for many citizens" (15 Oct 2026)
• The Government and Business Journal, "Nigeria's 364-Day T-bill rate rises to 15.90% as DMO allots ₦269 billion" (14 Oct 2026)
• AIICO Capital, "Financial Markets Today, 15 October 2026"
• BusinessDay, "BusinessDay sees September inflation rising to 15.5%" (14 Oct 2026)
• FMDA, "Nigeria Inflation Forecast – September 2026" (13 Oct 2026)
• Gopexly Trending, "Nigeria September Inflation Seen at 15.5%: What to Know" (14 Oct 2026)