₦250bn NLNG Dividend for Each State? What the Numbers Show

Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde says the Federal Government is holding back ₦250 billion in Nigeria LNG (NLNG) dividends due to each state until after the 2027 elections. On Sunday, 18 October, the Presidency called the claim false, arguing that it would require a single NLNG payout of about $25 billion. Makinde's office replied the same day that he stands by the claim, pointing to a reconciliation exercise that it says found about ₦9 trillion owed to states and local governments. No official document has been published to settle the dispute. Here is each side's case and the maths.

What Makinde said

Speaking on Friday at a 2027 budget consultation at the University of Ibadan, Makinde, who is also the presidential candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), said:

"Each state was supposed to get ₦250 billion. We had already identified projects that would expand Oyo State's economy. But they have now said the money will not be paid until after the election. Is the election more important than the people of Nigeria?"

The Presidency's response

In a statement signed by Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, the Presidency set out its arithmetic:

• ₦250 billion for each of the 36 states would total ₦9.0 trillion, before counting the Federal Government, the FCT and 774 local councils.
• Under the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) formula, states receive 26.72% of distributable Federation Account revenue.
• For the states' share alone to reach ₦9 trillion, NLNG dividends paid into the Federation Account would have to exceed ₦33.68 trillion, about $25 billion, in one declaration.
• NLNG has paid about $21.5 billion in dividends to the Federation over the last 25 years, with less than $3 billion received since President Bola Tinubu took office.

"Any claim that a single payout exceeds the company's entire lifetime distribution to the Federation, and is being withheld, defies basic logic and economic reality," the statement said. It also accused Makinde of making misleading claims as part of his presidential campaign.

Our check: ₦9 trillion divided by 26.72% gives about ₦33.68 trillion, so the Presidency's sum is internally consistent. At the official rate of about ₦1,332 per dollar, ₦33.68 trillion is about $25.3 billion.

Makinde's reply

In a statement from his media adviser, Sulaimon Olanrewaju, reported by ThisDay, Makinde said the Presidency "sidestepped the central issue":

• The Nigeria Governors' Forum (NGF), with the Federal Government's support, hired a consultant to reconcile NLNG dividend payments.
• That exercise identified a shortfall of about ₦9 trillion due to states and local governments, and the Federal Government accepted the findings, his office said.
• The report is held by both the Federal Government and the NGF. Makinde is the NGF's vice-chairman.
• He asked how the less than $3 billion received under the current administration was shared, and whether states and councils got their portion.

His campaign organisation separately challenged the Presidency to publish NLNG dividend receipts, FAAC decisions and the official communication on when states would be paid, Leadership reported.

Two different claims

Read side by side, the two statements may not be describing the same thing. The Presidency treats ₦250 billion per state as if it would come from one dividend payout. Makinde's office describes it as each state's share of an accumulated ₦9 trillion shortfall identified in a reconciliation covering states and local governments. By our calculation, 36 states multiplied by ₦250 billion is exactly ₦9 trillion, the same figure Makinde's office cites.

Neither side has published the reconciliation report, the dividend receipts or the FAAC records, so we cannot say which account is right. What can be said is that the Presidency's statement does not address the NGF reconciliation directly, and Makinde's statements have not set out how the ₦9 trillion was calculated or over what period.

How NLNG dividends work

• Who owns NLNG. The Federal Government holds 49% of NLNG through NNPC, Punch reported. NLNG is not listed on the Nigerian Exchange.
• How much it pays. NLNG Chief Executive Adeleye Falade said in July that the company had paid $47.2 billion in dividends to all shareholders, from revenue of $149.6 billion, since it started operations.
• What the government side received. Annual payments to NNPC were $1.39 billion in 2014, $722.44 million in 2021 and $1.10 billion in 2022, according to NLNG's Facts and Figures report, cited by Punch.
• What states already get. The 36 states received ₦4.83 trillion from the Federation Account between January and June 2026, with Oyo getting ₦147.32 billion, Punch reported. By our calculation, ₦250 billion would be about 1.7 times Oyo's entire first-half allocation.

What this means for investors

• State finances matter. States fund roads, salaries and contractors. A payout of this size would be a major boost to state budgets, and to businesses that work with state governments.
• Election-season numbers. With the 2027 elections approaching, expect more competing figures on public money. Treat claims from any side as unconfirmed until official records are published.
• Watch FAAC. Monthly FAAC communiqués show what is shared. A large NLNG-related distribution would appear there first.
• Oil and gas income. NLNG dividends depend on gas prices and output. Higher oil and gas prices this year have lifted Federation revenue, the World Bank said in its latest Nigeria Development Update.
• Keep learning. Gopexly's 18 free Academy lessons explain how dividends work.

This is for information only and is not investment advice.

FAQ

Is the Federal Government withholding ₦250 billion NLNG dividends for each state?

It is disputed. Governor Seyi Makinde says it is, citing an NGF reconciliation that found a ₦9 trillion shortfall. The Presidency says the claim is false. Neither side has published supporting documents.

How much of NLNG does the Federal Government own?

The Federal Government holds 49% of NLNG through NNPC. NLNG's other shareholders are private oil companies, and the company is not listed on the NGX.

What share of Federation Account revenue goes to states?

According to the Presidency's statement, states receive 26.72% of distributable Federation Account revenue under the FAAC sharing formula.

Sources

• State House, "Presidency responds to Governor Makinde's claim on NLNG dividends" (18 Oct 2026)
• Punch, "Makinde's ₦250bn NLNG claim false — Presidency" (18 Oct 2026)
• ThisDay, "Presidency, Oyo Gov Bicker Over Allegations of Withholding N250bn NLNG Dividend Due Each State" (19 Oct 2026)
• Leadership, "N250b NLNG Fund: Publish The Dividend Receipts, Makinde-Daura Campaign Replies Presidency" (19 Oct 2026)
• World Bank, Nigeria Development Update, October 2026 (PDF)