Nigeria Oil Output Hits 1.53m bpd, Meets OPEC Quota Again

Nigeria produced an average of 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in September 2026, up from 1.50 million bpd in August, according to OPEC's monthly oil market report released on 13 October. That is about 2% higher month on month and about 102% of Nigeria's OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd, making September the fifth month in a row that the country has met its quota. Separate data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows combined crude and condensate output of about 1.72 million bpd. Here is how the numbers fit together and why they matter.

Five months at or above quota

TheCable and Leadership reported the monthly crude figures behind the five-month run.

OPEC said the September figure came from direct communication with Nigerian authorities. The group also uses secondary sources, such as energy intelligence platforms, to track member output.

The bigger picture: quarters and years

Output has improved over the past two years, though it has not risen in a straight line.

So the third quarter was slightly weaker than the second, even with the September pick-up. Both are well above the first quarter and above the 2025 average.

Crude versus crude plus condensate

Nigeria reports oil output in two ways, and the difference often causes confusion.

• Crude oil only is the number OPEC uses to check quota compliance. For September, that is 1.53 million bpd.
• Crude plus condensate adds condensate, a light liquid produced mainly alongside natural gas. Condensate is not counted under the OPEC quota.

According to NUPRC data reported by Leadership, combined crude and condensate output averaged 1,717,030 bpd in September, up 2.34% from 1,677,770 bpd in August. Condensate made up about 0.19 million bpd. Daily output peaked at 1.84 million barrels and was lowest at 1.68 million barrels during the month.

NUPRC credited the improvement mainly to stable operations across most producing assets and the absence of a major pipeline outage, which helped production uptime and the movement of crude to export terminals. The Forcados terminal handled the largest share at about 320,320 bpd, followed by Bonny at about 303,270 bpd.

On 10 October, Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele said the government had taken steps to boost production by reducing oil theft and renegotiating some commitments that had tied up Nigeria's crude, TheCable reported.

How Nigeria compares in Africa and OPEC+

Nigeria remained Africa's largest crude producer in September.

Total crude production across the OPEC+ group, known as the Declaration of Cooperation, averaged 39.07 million bpd in September, about 0.90 million bpd higher than in August, OPEC said.

Projections, demand and prices

Three other numbers frame the outlook.

A projection, not a fact. The Dangote Group has projected that Nigeria's output could reach 1.72 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a full-year average of about 1.62 million bpd. Nairametrics stressed that this is a forecast and separate from actual OPEC data. The reports we read do not say whether the projection refers to crude only or crude plus condensate, so it should not be compared directly with the 1.53 million bpd OPEC figure.

Weaker global demand growth. OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by more than 70%, from 1.4 million bpd to 400,000 bpd, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand during the year.

High prices for now. Brent crude traded around $106 per barrel on 13 October amid supply concerns linked to tensions in the Middle East, though prices eased during the session, BusinessDay reported. Nairametrics noted renewed drone and missile threats against Saudi Arabia following attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport.

What this means for investors

• More barrels at high prices help dollar earnings. Higher output combined with oil above $100 can support export revenue, government income and foreign exchange inflows, which in turn support the naira and reserves.
• Listed oil and gas companies are affected directly. Upstream producers on the NGX earn more when both volumes and prices rise, though their results also depend on costs, pipeline access and hedging.
• Watch the risks. A major pipeline outage or a rise in theft could quickly reverse the gains. OPEC's lower demand outlook also means prices could fall if Middle East tensions ease.
• Check which number you are reading. Headlines may quote 1.53 million bpd (crude) or 1.72 million bpd (crude plus condensate). Both can be correct.
• Budget planning depends on output. The government's revenue plans rely on steady production, so this data also matters for public finances and bond investors.

This is for information only and is not investment advice.

FAQ

How much oil did Nigeria produce in September 2026?

OPEC data shows Nigeria produced 1.53 million bpd of crude oil in September 2026. Including condensate, NUPRC data shows about 1.72 million bpd.

What is Nigeria's OPEC quota?

Nigeria's OPEC quota is 1.5 million bpd of crude oil. September output was about 102% of that, the fifth month in a row of compliance.

Why do OPEC and NUPRC figures differ?

OPEC tracks crude oil only for quota purposes. NUPRC also reports crude plus condensate, which gives a higher total.

Sources

• Nairametrics, "Nigeria's oil output hits 1.53 million bpd, maintains OPEC quota for fifth month" (13 Oct 2026)
• TheCable, "OPEC: Nigeria's crude oil output rose by 2% to 1.53m bpd in September" (13 Oct 2026)
• Leadership, "Nigeria's Crude Oil, Condensate Output Rises 2.34% to 1.72mbpd in September—NUPRC"
• BusinessDay, "BusinessDay sees September inflation rising to 15.5%" (14 Oct 2026), for the Brent price